California just fired the opening shot in the global film incentive arms race. The state more than doubled its annual film tax credits from $330 million to $750 million—and made them refundable for the first time since 2009. As someone who's spent over a decade bringing international productions to Southeast Asia, this changes everything. The math that once favored overseas production is shifting. But this escalation reveals something crucial: budgets are tightening everywhere. Streamers pay less, distributors offer less, and the independent film world gets squeezed hardest. California's move isn't just about incentives—it's about survival in a contracting market. The question isn't whether other regions will escalate. It's whether we can afford not to.